Just a week into Euro 2024, the word 'permutations' is flying around. With Scotland and England having played twice, the calculators are out as people try to plot a potential route into the last 16. The top two teams in all six groups qualify automatically, but the four best third-placed teams also make it through. How do things stand for England? England need to avoid defeat against Slovenia in their final group game on Tuesday to progress from Group C. If Denmark fail to beat Serbia, then England will qualify regardless of their result against Slovenia. However, if England lose to Slovenia and Serbia win their game then Slovenia will win the group. England must beat Slovenia to top the group if Denmark win against Serbia. Even if England do not finish in the top two, they could progress as one of the best third-placed teams. No team has failed to reach the knockout stages in a 24-team Euros after gaining four points.
How do things stand for Scotland?
If Scotland lose their final group match to Hungary on Sunday, they will finish fourth and be eliminated.If the match is drawn, Scotland will finish the group in third and could yet qualify - but that would depend on results in other groups.If Scotland win the game, they will finish either second or third - depending on the result in Switzerland's match with Germany. As Scotland drew with Switzerland, their positions will be decided on overall goal difference, then overall goals scored, then disciplinary points, then their ranking in European qualifiers.As it stands, Scotland's goal difference is six worse than Switzerland's, so it would need a significant swing in the final round of games.
Who are best third-placed teams?
Here's how the table stood after Thursday's matches. A reminder that the top four teams will qualify for the last 16. A table showing the third-placed rankings at Euro 2024
The results of the third-placed teams are compared based on their three group stage matches, according to the following criteria:
A: Higher number of points
B: Superior goal difference
C: Higher number of goals scored
D: Higher number of wins
E: Lower disciplinary points total based only on yellow and red cards received in all group matches (red card = 3 points, yellow card = 1 point, expulsion for two yellow cards in one match = 3 points)
F: Position in the overall European Qualifiers rankings, or if Germany, the host association team, is involved in the comparison, drawing of lots
Gareth Southgate's England have been here before - for the third successive major tournament they have drawn their second group game.
Just like the performances in the goalless draws with Scotland at Euro 2020 and the USA at the 2022 World Cup, this 1-1 stalemate with Denmark has left Southgate with as many questions as answers despite being unbeaten and on the brink of reaching the next round.Theories abound as to what the England boss can do to improve his team as Euro 2024 progresses. While reaching the knockout stages is within touching distance, optimism is evaporating."I don't know if they are being told to play like this," former England defender Micah Richards said on BBC One. "They are lethargic - they need more energy and need to be more aggressive."We are constantly inviting pressure. We have a group of players who can keep the ball."
'It was very poor' - Alan Shearer reacts to England's draw with Denmark
Why are England so 'passive'?Many pundits and fans have questioned why an England side so packed with talent, who play for clubs such as Manchester City and Liverpool that press high, were sitting in a low block.Having, as they did against Serbia, started with purpose and scored a deserved opener, England notably withdrew from the midfield fight and ceded impetus to their opponents.It was that lack of pressing which gave Morten Hjulmand the space and time to pick his spot and arrow a magnificent equaliser past Jordan Pickford and in off the post."England have to have more intensity in the press - they are too passive at the moment," said former England defender Rio Ferdinand."They have got in some good positions high up the pitch but have lacked that intensity, and when you are passive you are played through."The current balance of the team is not allowing the players to reach the levels that they have done for clubs. Phil Foden is out of position and not playing his best, maybe Jude Bellingham would be better playing at number eight. It is a big concern."At the moment England do not know when to squeeze the pitch, who is going when, the distances between each other.
"Once you have questions tactically the picture can change in a split second in front of you and you are lost. It is baffling and concerning."